EPL final week

[rolltide]

three 1u wagers

Newcastle pk +150
- really strange team. one week lose by 4 to wigan then beat chelsea in stamford bridge. gotta win, so give it a shot

Liverpool o2.5 -140
- only time i can remember winning a liverpool bet was against them in newcastle this year. unlikely to win twice in a season. look for a few thousand elvis' in swansea...should be funny as hell. f the scousers

norwich +120
- villa safe and don't want to set the record for draws in a season so i think they'll play some football here. norwich showed last week they're not quite yet on vacation and are simply the better team

chelsea using 2nd team vs blackburn but should win easily. don't think you'll be seeing bb in epl again anytime soon

i think sunderland +650 is a great value. when united get to dressing room and see city up 3-0 it's all over. even 2/1 HT/FT can be considered or X/1

 

[rolltide]

if you guys can't wait until tomorrow i do have some action tonight in mexican 2nd division...

Leon vs Correcaminos
-2nd leg of promotion final. In mexico only 1 team promotes and it is match of Apertura champ vs Clausura champ, home and home contested. Leon have been easily best team all year and outpaced the Roadrunners by 11 points in the tournaments but it all comes down to another playoff home game. As mentioned last month the only matches Leon have lost in Nou Camp since August 2010 are the Clausura 2011 final vs Tijuana and Apertura 2011 semifinal vs La Piedad....just two defeats in 33 with a +51 goal difference and a whopping 78 goals scored (nearly 2.5 gpg).

Correcaminos were tremendous in first leg but, IMO, didn't do enough with just 2-1 advantage. They scored early but then hit the crossbar before doubling advantage at HT. In 2H they missed open net before Leon's Maz got straight red card and Roadrunners pressed for 3-0. A miracle save by Leon goalie in 86th kept it 2-0 and then, in 91st, the 10 man Leon team headed home a goal for 2-1 final. Big negative is playing without Maz who led league in scoring and netted 28x in 37 appearances this year but they have many scoring options on team. This really comes down to how Leon deal with pressure as obviously this is their tournament to win or lose. I can see many goals too as I predict either Leon will thrash them or, if Roadrunners score, obviously Leon will need at least 2 goals just to get to ET. Since Jan 2011 Correcaminos just 4 away wins in 26 and only one in 2012 so certainly not a sold traveller in what is sure to be a heated environment.

It has been 10 years since Leon descended to Liga de Ascenso and they've been so close to promoting but never with such a great team. If Maz were playing this would be minimum 5/10 but always leery of playing teams that have history of failure in big games...

2003 lost promotion final to Irapuato
2004 lost promotion final to Dorados
2005 lost promotion final to Queretaro
2007 lost promotion final to Dorados
2008 lost promotion final to Indios
2010 lost promotion final to Necaxa
2012 ???

So, this makes 7th promotion final appearance in 10 years...

My odds for match are 1.60 which is basically same odds as when these teams met here a few weeks ago in Clausura semifinal. I just don't think the Roadrunners are good enough to hold Leon in this match and really wouldn't be surprised at a big win, 3-0 or 3-1.

Leon 3/10 @1.90 bwin/nb/uni (1.85 betcris)
Leon o2.5 2/10 @1.86 sbobet

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

good stuff....my footy bets r on hold til europe next month...been a solid epl season....but w/the thoroughbreds in full gear, my thoughts aren't entirely on the pitch.....cheers

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

and o yea....F liverpool....

 

[Club]

Great call on this Mexican League match. I wish my book carried it.

 

[Dr.T]

Nice 5-0 winner with Leon.

 

[ARUKIDNME]

I like the Newcastle play. I took them in my competition @ +1/4.

BOL

 

[DialSquares]

of course no bet for me but shocking good odds for arsenal to win vs WBA. I know WBA can play teams tough and lord knows we can suck on the road vs mid level teams but as RVP said recent - not making the CL is pretty much impossible. although a draw probably gets us through we can avoid that 4th place qualifier with a win. WBA has a big deal about Hodgsen but that ends early....we probably lose RVP if we dont make CL and why sign podolski for just europa and league. Too important and i believe total focus will be with the gunners...and WBA are still a bad road side.

So arsenal to win looks good but i dont bet my club. Team Total over 2 above even seems like a solid bet but 1-0 works for us so i don't know.

GL today rolltide - can't wait for the EUROs and seeing TFC win their first domestic match - maybe in June

 

[rolltide]

two more 1u adds

Chelsea over 1.5 1H +115
Spurs -1.25 +108

GL all

 

[chetthejet]

Hey roll tide I see you in Pops forum all the time as a major contributor. Did you read the article on
soccer fixing in the most recent article in ESPN the magazine? It is incredible and I would like to hear
your thoughts if you get a chance to read it. Enjoy and appreciate your posts in Pop's forum.

 

[rolltide]

Hey roll tide I see you in Pops forum all the time as a major contributor. Did you read the article on
soccer fixing in the most recent article in ESPN the magazine? It is incredible and I would like to hear
your thoughts if you get a chance to read it. Enjoy and appreciate your posts in Pop's forum.

is it in the one with rooney on cover? just up to the rooney article now...haven't seen the article on fixing yet

i'm always intrigued by soccer fixing. if you're interested in the subject one of the greatest sports books ever written was "The Fix: Soccer and Organized Crime". The authored did extensive research and traveled the globe (especially Asia where these syndicates are largely located) finding fixes up to, and including, world cup matches. It goes deep into the subject and you'll even know where to spot games (heavy odds drop in asian markets then you see a goal in first 10-15 minutes from team that odds have dropped on. fixes are almost never those equalizer or game winners in 93rd minute...makes no sense to leave it that long)

good stuff

 

[chetthejet]

Yes it the one with Rooney on cover. Thanks for the info on the book, when I get caught up on my 50 or so magazines sitting in various spots around place, I
will drop that one on my kindle. Be curious to hear your thoughts when you read the article.

 

[rolltide]

read it last night...really good stuff...wish it got more than a few pages though

although The Fix doesn't use real names I'd be 99% sure both the guy arrested and Dan Tan are written about in the book. No doubt if you were interested in that article you'll love the book.

here's the guy's website http://www.howtofixasoccergame.com/

one major parallel drawn was how many of these "friendlies" are not clean matches. and, when you think about it why would they be? if you can get eastern euro, african, and central/south american national teams to play each other in a neutral location they're doing so basically for free (small stipend from national team might be given). And, since match means nothing why not make 5k on the side. Same with the refs that might be doing the game for $500. So, not surprising that when Latvia and Bolivia play a friendly in Turkey there are 4 penalties given and the over hits

so, for all you folks ready to get down on friendlies today and tomorrow you might want to watch the line movement or grab a coin to flip